Quantum computing is no longer a technology of the future. Earlier this month, a leaked paper claimed that Google had achieved quantum supremacy using Sycamore, their 53-qubit (quantum bit) quantum processor, to perform a calculation that can’t practically be carried out with a classical supercomputer. However, the paper was pulled as quickly as it was published, and scientists began a furious debate around this so-called “breakthrough.” With such uncertainty woven into the fabric of quantum computing research and development, why should insurers trouble themselves with quantum computing today?
I recently attended the 2019 Quantum.Tech conference where I had the chance to see firsthand the anticipatory excitement and implications of new quantum offerings from the international quantum computing community. Some key lessons stood out as worthy of insurer attention for 2020.
Though current quantum offerings are not yet mature, a quantum future is inevitable and fast approaching. Quantum computing still struggles to overcome technical challenges outlined in Novarica’s 2018 brief on quantum computing, including quantum decoherence and supercooling requirements. While persistent, these challenges are far from insurmountable. Conservative estimates project that quantum supremacy—and the resulting upheaval of many current encryption standards—will be reached within the next 10-15 years. Near-term quantum solutions are expected to hit the market within the next five.
Preparing for a quantum future will take considerable time, dedication, and investment. The threat of a universal quantum machine capable of decrypting existing ciphers is great enough to justify developing a quantum roadmap today, even though the advent of a universal quantum computer is still a decade away. Though one might not see an immediate reward for becoming crypto-secure this year, insurers should be concerned about their ability to protect their policyholders’ data in a quantum future. Novarica recommends that insurers start off by understanding their current technological state. Do core systems need to be modernized in order to increase crypto-agility and process agility? Has GDPR compliance been achieved? Simply beginning to ask these questions today will pay dividends when that quantum machine becomes a scalable reality.
Quantum readiness is about starting slow but getting ready to sprint. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype and fearmongering that comes with each new technology. The reality of the matter is thus: We are entering a quantum era, and education, understanding, and proactivity are the paths through. Educating everyone—from C-suite to junior staff—on the specific implications of quantum computing for the insurance industry builds a strong foundation for all future quantum initiatives.
We may be on the cusp of a quantum Cambrian explosion. Investment in, and patent applications for quantum computing solutions continue to grow rapidly. Though not yet ready for mass commercialization, quantum offerings have expanded significantly in number and type just this past year. Quantum key distribution (QKD) packages can be readily purchased today. Quantum networks are fast becoming mature. Providers such as D-Wave are beginning to offer quantum cloud services and workflow platforms for running hybrid quantum-classical applications. Others, like Zapata Computing, are focused on developing hardware-agnostic algorithms designed for quantum computing systems. Scientists are starting to discuss far-term quantum applications which include quantum widgets, games, toys, and everyday tools.
Given the supersonic pace of quantum computing research and development, it’s likely that when indisputable quantum supremacy is achieved, there will be little forewarning. Developing a quantum roadmap today will put insurers in an advantageous position to efficiently implement quantum computing solutions and avoid potential security debacles.
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